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Weight of Evidence:

A term used to describe probabilities of an issue’s direction based on multiple technical and fundamental indicators; the higher the “weight” the higher the probability of the issue’s next predictive move.

WOE probability example:

If a dog lives in Florida it has a 20% probability of having fleas.
If a dog has long hair it has a 20% probability of having fleas.
If a dog has no flea collar it has a 20% probability of having fleas.
If a dog sleeps outside it has a 20% probability of having fleas.
If a dog always digs in the dirt it has a 20% probability of having fleas.
If a dog only gets bath once a month it has a 20% probability of having fleas.

Solely being told a dog lives in Florida would only give you a 20% probability the dog has fleas. However, being told the dog lives in Florida, sleeps outside, has long hair, has no flee collar, always digs in the dirt, and only gets bathed once a month gives you a 73.79% probability of having fleas.


Whipsaw:

This occurs when someone buys/sells short a security only to have the trade go against them quickly. An example would be if an investor buys a stock only to see it fall to their stop price shortly after they are filled.



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